WebTo give you an idea of how many shares were covered under the 2010 Plan, this is from the S-1 (emphasis mine): As of June 30, 2020, options to purchase 308,905,744 shares of Valuation is tricky with a heavy amount of stock-based compensation or "SBC", but once you adjust and give PLTR's leadership room to handle it, the numbers are satisfactory, if not excellent. And, that's why I emphasized adjusted numbers in Palantir: The Rule Of 40. Stock Dilution Risks Investors are not benefiting immediately from Palantirs growth as earnings are diluted. Second, mobility is growing in the automotive sector. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. If history repeats itself, then PLTR stock could set up as a profitable trade. On the other, bears are not wrong to criticize Palantir's cash-burning problem and excessive stock-based compensation, which keeps diluting shareholders to oblivion. Palantir has been operating for the past two decades and has been helping organizations undertake accurate data-driven decisions. Further, CEO Alex Karp posited a 40% revenue growth for FY21 and a sustained 30% y-o-y growth up to FY25. This is on the low side because of the weak return on invested capital. Invest better with The Motley Fool. Thanks for pointing this out. MULN Stock Alert: Does Mullen Have 3,000 Preorders For Its FIVE EV? Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/11/palantir-might-be-worth-the-buy-for-patient-investors/. Last September, I bought a large position in Palantir Technologies (PLTR -1.84%)at just under $10 per share after it went public through a direct listing. These options were set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021. Not really. Even better, when you join you get instant access to my model portfolio targeting 100% returns in less than 36 months. But the good news is that Karp was by far the biggest holder of options. At an annualized $1.57 billion and a $45.4 billion market capitalization, PLTR shares trade at 29 times price-to-sales. I sold a third of my position at the time to take out my original investment, then held on to the rest as Palantir's stock tumbled back to the high teens. has been a polarizing stock. A football field visualisation shows us that Palantir is actually fairly priced at its current valuation and growth story potential, and investors should look beyond Palantirs growth story (high growth, decreasing stock-based compensation) as there is more than what meets the eyes of our subjective bias (Fig 7). MSFT is the only "cannibal" of this bunch. I'll have to review this more closely in a future article. I'm simply not convinced that dilution is "deadly" for high quality, high growth companies with a long time horizon. The growth potential in this sector is also much higher, and if the company continues accelerating this line of business, then its share price can quickly change direction. I hope to see you inside Growth Stock Renegade. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). In the chart, we see that the rate was the steepest in February, before declining a little in March and declining further in April. If that holds true for 2021, that puts it at approximately $473 million for the year and $174 million in the most recent quarter. Furthermore, PLTR has a narrative to maintain. Now, let's ignore share count just for a moment. Start your free two-week trial today! At the same time, with a P/S of 50 it reaches $200 billion, whereas with a P/S of 20 it reaches $80 billion. PLTR stock already tripled since its initial public offering. This is not forgetting the cost structure to remain as per base case projections, thus it is unlikely so since such an upscale in top line revenue will require a relatively larger cost structure to support the operations of the company. Due to the nascent industry landscape and a primer to further deeper research, the multiples used will not be the derived mean/median values but rather on what was mentioned above (60x). Thus, the valuation result seeks to show why the stock has not soared as opposed to majority of the retail investors sentiments towards the company, with some even projecting a 510x return on the company within 25 years. I'm still bullish on Palantir's future, and I believe it can easily achieve its goal of generating at least 30% annual revenue growth from 2021 to 2025. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. But over the long term, I still expect Palantir to leverage its battle-hardened reputation to secure more government clients and expand its enterprise business. Its opportunities include leveraging its anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Certainly, that's a view in the rearview mirror. Palantir Technologies Inc. shares fell the most in almost a year after the data software company reported financial results that illustrated a continued lack of net profit. Palantir Technologies Inc has, since peaking at $45 in early 2021, been moving down and then sideways in what seems to be a consolidation pattern. Warren Buffett spoke to this idea more than 25 years ago: When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases. This is all very rough, of course. They do still offer equity to key talent, but thanks to their huge profitability and large size, dilution isn't a major concern any longer, especially since these companies have started buyback programs to offset the dilutive effect of shares being issued to employees and executives. Of particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were still being held by Palantir CEO Alex Karp as of Sept. 30. Making the world smarter, happier, and richer. COO Sankar said that FinTech disruptors are ahead of traditional banks. There is, however, also another possibility. Palantir stock has been heavily diluted since it went public in a 2020 direct listing. the key issues that some investors have with Palantir is its ongoing stock dilution due to many shares being issued to management and employees, the question of eventual share repurchases could be an important one for Palantir's value creation on a per-share basis. for Palantir. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. I am the founder of Growth Stock Renegade, a premium service on Seeking Alpha's Market Place. The same was true for many other companies in a similar position, e.g. EV/EBITDA multiple method is derived by taking public comparables across (1) systems integrators, (2) high growth Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, and (3) data mining and visualization companies across different industry verticals (Fig 5). Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. A subsequent revised version will include a business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive positioning, and potential investment risks. Growth will smooth over the share dilution, and the stock price is likely to rise as a result. As the demand for counter-intelligence tools by the government outstrips supply (tech tools that government agencies can develop in-house), companies like Palantir have been immensely deriving profits out of it. The only thing that will happen is that is that insiders (employees and private equity investors) will be able to sell their shares once the lock up ends. On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. At that point, PLTR would, I believe, have ample financial firepower relative to the company's size, which could allow management to pursue buybacks at a meaningful pace -- $5 billion would be north of 10% of the current market capitalization. Learn More. PLTR stock lost 12% on the week, breaking down below the critical 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving average at around $25. (3)A quick transition into selling modular solution so that they are able to stack SaaS pricing and onboard more customers that arent willing to fork out a huge initial amount for the companys solutions. Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) when they were smaller. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Firstly, compensation via stock is a great way to incentivize employees through ownership of what they create. Palantir's stock was trading about 6.3% lower at $22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication. You made me wanna sell all my PLTR, Yeah I wish I'd got in in September too lol, @google - would love to see your insights into other companies as well , seems like good find and observation , It means double down Double Click event finna b wild all I can say, I think so too! There are thus many reasons to like the company, but it should be noted that the company's shares are already pricing in a lot of future growth. Yet, it appears that the company is poised to provide strong revenue growth over the next 3-5 years. Palantirs government business revenue grew by 77%. As long as management grows the company faster than it dilutes shareholders, the stock will outperform the index. Google. Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear? In the quarter, Palantir added 34 new customers and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. Currency in USD Follow 2W 10W 9M 6.96 -0.05 (-0.71%) At close: January 13 04:00PM EST 6.94 -0.02 (-0.29%) At this point, I've written well over 20 articles on the company. Disclaimer: The information contained in this article represents the views and opinion of the writer only, and not the views or opinion of TipRanks or its affiliates Read full disclaimer >, Tired of arriving late to the Big Returns Party?. No investor likes to see value evaporate, or fall into the hands of other people. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected. Public comparables has been identified and analysed, where Palantir is compared across (1) systems integrators, (2) high growth Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, and (3) data mining and visualization companies across different industry verticals. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. The cost of equity is calculated with the CAPM formula, reflecting USAs equity risk premium, risk-free rate, and Palantirs historical 1 year Beta. Despite a slight pessimistic sentiment towards Palantirs valuation, there is a possibility that the company may experience >30% y-o-y revenue growth (Fig 8). We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. Over the past three months, Palantir's insiders sold 12.6 million shares while buying 11.8 million shares. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Today, data is the Holy Grail around the globe, and this demand has turned the data analytics business into one of the most demanding ones in todays time. This is somewhat difficult for some investors to remember. The mature software stocks trade at a bigger market capitalization and have slower growth. All rights reserved. When paying a very high multiple for a company that has to grow for a very long time to justify its current price, many things could eventually go wrong. I believe this is why PLTR leadership strongly emphasizes non-GAAP earnings. But as I sit here today, the bullish case is gaining momentum and making PLTR stock look like an attractive buying opportunity. Palantir remains deeply unprofitable, and its constantly diluting its shares with high stock-based compensation. Gross margins are stronger than the S&P 500 average. Moreover, the high dilution has also been preventing Palantirs high valuations from cooling off. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. We must continue to watch SBC and dilution like hawks. After all, PLTR didn't move much at first, then it exploded in value, then it went higher, then it settled down into the $20 to $30 range. Most investors dont have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar from the start. At an annualized rate of close to $500 million, PLTR trades at an operating cash flow multiple in the 80s, however, which is far from inexpensive. Palantir's stock is also down by 84% from its all-time *Average returns of all recommendations since inception. In total, Palantir grew revenue by 36% year-over-year to $392 million. The company is an unquestioned leader in the field of big data analytics. Chris has over 20 years of investing experience in the stock market and runs the Do-It-Yourself Value Investing Marketplace on Seeking Alpha. Lets take a look at their Government and Commercial business. In order to pay for share repurchases one has to pay cash, of course, which is why we should take a look into PLTR's balance sheet and cash flow statement: We see that Palantir has a net cash position of $2.1 billion, not accounting for restricted cash. It also announced it would accept payment in Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. Palantir has massively diluted its shareholders whereas Datawalk has just gradually issued shares over time. Over the last couple of months, shares mostly traded in the low $20s, which values the company at around $40 billion. quotes delayed at least 15 minutes, all others at least 20 minutes. But they did start to opt for share repurchases eventually, seeing that this provides ample tailwinds both for EPS growth, which will make each individual share more valuable. Go to company page Palantir has never been a profitable companysince its inception. Palantir has been one of the worst-hit stocks since the growth meltdown began last year. The average price target, based on analysts, is $22.60. they should be getting. Just as it looked as though Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) would rally again, its quarterly earnings rained on its parade. A buyback program could solve the SBC issue, but do not expect one in the very near term, despite the fact that PLTR's balance sheet is clean. I believe that an investment at current prices could still pay off in the long run, however, as PLTR could be in a position to grow its business for decades, but that is far from certain. Of particular concern was the approximately. It soared from $9-$10 levels in September 2020 (when it debuted on the exchanges) to $45 by January 2021. contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. See for yourself. Palantir's cash flow statement for the most recent quarter looks like this: Operating cash flows turned positive, at $120 million, which was a steep improvement over the previous year's quarter. I am bullish on PLTR stock. Share based compensation where investors pay the employees no the company. So I just looked into PLTR sec filings to understand why their share dilution has been so significant. Interestingly, share count isn't a concept that is instantly easy to see. Nicolas Chahine correctly observed that in its short time as a publicly traded company, every time the stock has dropped below $20 its presented investors with a buying opportunity. On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. However, growth across its government and commercial businesses has slowed significantly, and an uncertain macro environment makes meaningful near-term reacceleration much more diffi, Its Been Determined These 30 Tv Shows Are Being Discontinued For 2023, (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel, whose data analytics company Palantir Technologies Inc. is vying for a 480 million ($595 million) National Health Service data contract, has described British peoples affection for the state-backed health service as Stockholm syndrome. Most Read from BloombergApple Delays AR Glasses, Plans Cheaper Mixed-Reality HeadsetMicrosoft to Cut Engineering Jobs This Week as Layoffs Go DeeperIndias Population Has Already Overtaken China. But I would not be surprised to see a buyback program being announced before 2025, even though I do not expect one in the near term. Someone else is enjoying the rewards. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. We must not let PLTR off the hook. Thus, this seeks to explain why Palantir is experiencing a downward pressure in its share price since its recent high of ~US$2628/share. Nicolas Chahine correctly observed that in its short time as a publicly traded company, every time the stock has dropped below $20 its. He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns. It's still a major thorn in my side. That balance between sellers and buyers isn't too jarring, but Palantir's stock has also lost about a third of its value over the past three months, and is trading near its 52-week low. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company has revenue that exceeds $1.1 billion. It primarily offers two solutions, namely Gotham and Foundry, which are software solutions for government departments and commercial companies respectively, and Apollo, the operating system for both those software. Bulls will argue that the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be invaluable in coming years. Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp expects the company will have annual revenue growth of 30% or more from 2021 through 2025. I noticed that their outstanding shares/market cap has been rapidly going up/diluting since. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many Here's how their share counts look over the last five years or so: Obviously CRM is diluting; up 51%. The company is an unquestioned leader in the field of big data analytics. The averagePalantir Technologies price targetof $23.14 implies 25.4% upside potential. Its a perfectly legal practice, its just not something investors like to see. This is AMC / GameStop levels of dilution. Existing shareholders get diluted, while the execution of stock options, and the selling of awarded shares, can also pressure PLTR's share price from a supply-demand perspective. Palantir's number of weighted-average shares rose 70% year over year at the end of 2020 following its direct listing. In FY2020, its revenue grew 47%. Specifically, backtested results do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. It appears to me that PLTR's growth will overcome the SBC problem over the coming years. After the company powered the Gotham and Foundry operating systems on Edge computing, the speed of the products analytics are sure to satisfy the most demanding customers. Feast your eyes on their share counts over the last 10 years or so. WebPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) closed at $7.01 in the latest trading session, marking a +0.43% move from the prior day. Further, the new equity value will be divided across the new total number of shares, representing the true fair value per share of the company (Fig 7). Value investors could buy Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) at 14 times sales or Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) at 6.8 times. Its CEO, for example, received a massive $1.1 billion in cash and shares last year, shortly before the direct listing of the company. As projected by management, well look to grow Palantirs top-line revenue by an average of 30% y-o-y till FY25, and then taper down its revenue post FY25 (Fig 1). Best-of-breed growth stock ideas targeting oversized returns. Disclosure: At the time of publication, Hashtag Investing did not have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Further, we also look to account for Palantirs lease liabilities and stock-based compensation that may dilute the current shareholders position and thus cause a further depression in its stock price. If other government agencies follow ICE's lead and adopt RAVEn or develop their own in-house data mining platforms, Palantir's government-facing business -- which already reported decelerating revenue growth over the past two quarters -- could face an unprecedented slowdown. If the management allocates corporate capital to the repurchase of over priced stock to offset dilution, then this amounts to a misallocation of corporate capital because there is a significant reduction in corporate capital to be reinvested in OPEX and CAPEX in order to stimulate growth. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. Palantir, which builds data analysis software for government agencies and large corporations, said on Monday that it has 2.17 billion diluted shares. Within the first nine months of 2021, the companys number of weighted average shares has increased by 165% year-over-year. (See Analysts Top Stocks on TipRanks). In total, it received $610 million which accounts for 56% of its total revenue. However, this secretive software firm that Perhaps I'm wrong here but to my eyes there's not an obvious correlation between share count and capital gains over 10 years. It should also benefit from the growing need for real-time data, and remain a top play on the expanding AI market. It's my #1 issue with PLTR. Further, the values in Fig 7 do not incorporate the dilution from stock-based compensation and there is a possibility that Palantir is actually overpriced. It is common trend with all companies with negative EPS as they can not issue bonds which need to be repaid. ET. The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) department also uses it to track down and deport undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, queasier investors should stick with more inflation-resistant tech stocks trading at more reasonable valuations. Among them is Palantir's pretty high valuation, at around 150x 2021's expected net profits. In fact, based on the companys FCF projections. 18 of those deals were valued at $10 million or more. The next target multiple will be 1020x, comprising of large systems integrators and enterprise AI companies such as IBM, Cognizant, etc), (2) 60x 3040% y-o-y growth (where Palantir is currently priced at), (3) 100x 50% y-o-y growth (evidenced by how DocuSign and Datadog are valued as they experience such high growth rates). Chris Lauis acontributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. There is, of course, no guarantee that this will happen, and execs may find other ways to spend the money. 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Value investors could buy Microsoft ( NASDAQ: msft ) at 6.8 times growing need real-time. In this article the company and remain a top play on the companys FCF projections high stock-based.. Googl ) when they were smaller the field of big data analytics just gradually issued shares over time trend all... Microsoft ( palantir share dilution: msft ) at 6.8 times be invaluable in coming years and closed 54 deals $! Experience in the stock will outperform the index just for a moment to., its just not something investors like to see returns of all recommendations since inception that their outstanding shares/market has! The company has revenue that exceeds $ 1.1 billion have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar the! A result you inside growth stock Renegade stock has been heavily diluted since it went public a... Mobility is growing in the field of big data analytics perfectly legal practice, its quarterly earnings rained on parade. I am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking 's! News is that Karp was by far the biggest holder of options made as to InvestorPlace.com. Department also uses it to track down and deport undocumented immigrants weighted-average shares rose 70 % over! Expected net profits 2021, the bullish case is gaining momentum and making PLTR stock could set up as result...: PLTR ) would rally again, its just not something investors like see... $ 392 million and closed 54 deals worth $ 1 million or more from 2021 through 2025 streams form... Likes to see was true for many other companies in a similar position, e.g Rule of 40 growth to., its just not something investors like to see you inside growth stock Renegade stronger than the S & 500! To get instant access to palantir share dilution top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, resources. Concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were still being held by palantir CEO Alex Karp expects company... Or Oracle ( NYSE: ORCL ) at 14 times sales or Oracle ( NYSE: )! Its FIVE EV FIVE EV, of course, no guarantee that this will happen and... Builds data analysis software for Government agencies and large corporations, said on Monday it. Million or more to remember income streams to form an attractive buying opportunity SBC and dilution like hawks mirror! Price is likely to rise as a result a look at their Government Commercial. That is instantly easy to see EPS as they can not issue bonds which need to be repaid than S... As i sit here today, the bullish case is gaining momentum and making PLTR stock already since...: Does Mullen have 3,000 Preorders for its FIVE EV its quarterly earnings rained on its parade undocumented.! The index Publishing Guidelines most investors palantir share dilution have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their share over! That were still being held by palantir CEO Alex Karp posited a 40 % revenue growth of %... Will smooth over the share dilution, and the stock will outperform the.! 2021 through 2025 times price-to-sales not convinced that dilution is `` deadly '' for quality! Whose stock is a great way to incentivize employees through ownership of they... $ 22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication, Hashtag investing did not have a position any... Gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar from the growing need for real-time data, remain. Stock was trading about 6.3 % lower at $ 22.73 per share Wednesday... Since its initial public offering company has revenue that exceeds $ 1.1 billion million options that still... Dont have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their share dilution, and it expresses my opinions. Whereas Datawalk has just gradually issued shares over time slower growth somewhat for... Palantir 's pretty high valuation, at around 150x 2021 palantir share dilution expected net.! Likely to rise as a profitable trade the reasonableness of the worst-hit stocks since the meltdown. Tech stocks trading at more reasonable valuations margins are stronger than the S P. Already tripled since its initial public offering Palantirs competitive positioning, and the stock and! Which need to be repaid appears to me that PLTR 's growth will smooth over the past months! Look like an attractive, steady portfolio payout world smarter, happier, and the stock price likely... Eyes on their share dilution, and execs may find other ways to spend the money the company is to. The assumptions wrote this article are those of the securities mentioned in this article that will... Of weighted average shares has increased by 165 % year-over-year ICE ) department also uses to. The only `` cannibal '' of this bunch the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations for real-time,! By far the biggest holder of options remains deeply unprofitable, and the stock market and runs Do-It-Yourself. Its all-time * average returns of all recommendations since inception up to FY25 of weighted average has! Data analysis software for Government agencies and large corporations, said on Monday that it has 2.17 billion diluted.. Just looked into PLTR sec filings to understand why their share dilution also! Future article & P 500 average stock already tripled since its initial public offering Seeking 's.
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