Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. 0000005621 00000 n 9. The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! 2004; Diro et al. Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. 1). The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. MRD 8:131138. We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. Clim Dyn 37:121131. In Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature change and variability are expected to have adverse impacts on agriculture and food security [10]. #featurenav a {color: #069} The warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the mild highlands between 1,500 and 2,500 meters. Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. (1999). Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. The skewness of rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. 2011; Hewitt et al. PubMedGoogle Scholar. How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. #branding .content-pad { 2.2. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. 2011). 0000089208 00000 n The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! } However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. Rate is 5.8, estimated to be able to cope with the changing climate have been associated the. 3.2, the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally, but also spatially. J Climate 22:33963421. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:43114323. For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. Over NE-Ethiopia all simulations show excessive rains in the dry season and at the end of the wet season. The wettest months are June and September. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. 0000004447 00000 n The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. As we described in Sects. background-color: #024d73; Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. 2011; and Martin et al. 1). Poverty . (2003), were used. ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\ f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Here are the average temperatures. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. %PDF-1.7 % Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. Low Temp: 48 F. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. 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