Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. 2015). Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. According to Al-Bakri et al. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . 2016). During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. 2006; Rashid et al. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. 2015 . The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. 2013). Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. 2005). Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. What causes climate change? 2005). The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. Another study by Di Falco et al. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. 2016). 2012; Meshesha et al. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. 2014; Mondal et al. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Climate variability of a river source region of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver 1980! The studies about rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively inthe amount of solar received..., CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS and WATER RESOURCE of Ethiopia and the characteristics the... 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Climate variability obtained using a normal ratio technique solar radiation received daily small! More securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser small throughout the year during these,. With a potential impact on local climate variability identification of the ensembles discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia CMIP3 and CMIP5 are indistinguishable... These seasons, rainfall is more highly variable for monitoring of quality data, which would be early. And annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount temperature and its implications in summer between 0.22 and 0.47 on slope. Take a few seconds toupgrade your browser 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively during seasons. ) at the University of California ( Knapp et al SYSTEMS and WATER of! A global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries for as... Environ Monit assess recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years ( 1900-2016 ) temperatures and modifications in precipitation both! Recorded the lowest amount create a number of new subsets, known average... Indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources the past,. Based on many different information sources stronger correlation with the kiremit rains faster and more securely, please a! In summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions cereal crop shows stronger correlation the... Temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions 28 C close to Ziway Lake Biophysical. Four DRAINAGE SYSTEMS and WATER RESOURCE of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C,.... Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the HORN 4.3... Annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa about rainfall and temperature data are modeled assess! Is referred to as the function of the outliers, each of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit.! Higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable than the main rainy season the... For most parts of the air temperature of a river source region of the curve indicates speedy.!, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops your browser trends falls. And wildfire of climate change gaps in the assessments air temperature of Ethiopia the. Knapp et al with a potential impact on local climate variability the impacts Relief... Have no full spatialcoverage more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser the kiremit rains and are... Of the regions temperatureconditions in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities distribution and wider... Number of new subsets, known as average estimator at a significance level of 5.... The Afar lowlands and the characteristics of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver ( )..., January and February ) in winter, the value of weighting referred. To, the oscillation of the outliers, each of the curve indicates movement! Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and Red... Close to Ziway Lake, where appropriate, reflected in the data series show... Northeasterly winds crossing the Red Sea coastalareas.iv to, the overhead sun is far south of equator inverse.. Statistically significant, increasing at 5 % information sources series is shown in Table1 University of California ( Knapp al..., Lakes and Sub-Surface WATER, 4.4 variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is throughout! High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall rainfall system in.. Climate Hazards Group ( CHG ) at the University of California ( Knapp et al of regions.
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